Affordable Moving Surface Target Engagement (AMSTE) 1. Affordable Moving Surface Target Engagement 2. Outline - structure of briefing 3. Motivation -- Current technology allows for effective precision strike against stationary targets. This capability will force our enemies into a mobile posture where targets are will not remain stationary for long. It will become increasing more important for the US and our allies to be able to engage moving surface targets. A critical goal will be to destroy these vehicles while moving, without risking collateral damage of nearby civilian vehicles. Joint Vision 2010 recognizes this important issue and the affordable engagement of surface moving targets is a critical element on warfare dominance. Existing technology requires weapons with sophisticated sensors, humans with designators, or uses dispersive (wide area) munitions to provide for moving target engagement. Each of these approaches has benefits and limitations. 4. Mobile Targets -- There are many types of moving or movable ground and surface targets that military operators would like to destroy, whether they are moving or stopped. Several types of ground vehicles and small surface ships that are identified here are candidates as moving surface target threats. 5. Observation -- Advances in technology provide the basis for affordable engagement of surface moving vehicles. New GMTI sensors in the current planning and development cycle will provide better resolution and more accuracy, which will enhance GMTI targeting approaches as they come on line. Advances in weaponry provide the ability to precisely target aim points. Advanced communications technology provides the ability to network physically dispersed sensors and weapons. Finally, the explosive growth in high performance computing provides the ability to implement computationally intense processing algorithms that will provide real-time engagement capability. 6. GMTI Sensors -- Airborne Ground Moving Target Indication (GMTI) radars provide the ability to simultaneously view hundreds of square miles containing thousands of moving vehicles. GMTI can see surface movers over large areas, which is a unique capability. Emerging GMTI systems such as JSTARS, Global Hawk, U2 AIP and Discoverer II provide large amounts of GMTI data. In addition there are several fighter-class GMTI radars that are under development and test. 7. Precision Weapons - There are several ongoing weapon development systems that are based on advanced GPS/INS navigation and guidance that provide high precision. These weapons can be used to engage moving vehicles provided that the weapons can be updated in flight. 8. AMSTE Concept - The fundamental concept is to use a network of GMTI sensors to provide precise, high-revisit rate detection of surface moving vehicles. This data will be fused to develop a precision fire-control tracking solution on surface moving vehicles. This solution will be provided to precision guided munitions as command guidance to engage moving vehicles. 9. AMSTE Features - The benefits of an AMSTE approach are that surface moving targets can be engaged with precision throughout their move-stop-move cycle. This puts a wide class of targets at risk that can not be effectively engaged with today's technology. In addition, the use of the networked GMTI and precision fire control for command guidance will reduce the need for expensive seekers on weapons, which will reduce logistics and increase platform load-out for more cost-effective missions. Finally, AMSTE will provide manned-fighters with increased survivability by providing off-board accurate hand-over attack solutions against moving vehicles allowing minimal use of on-board active sensors. 10. Feasibility Study - DARPA conducted a study in the summer of 1998 to look into AMSTE feasibility. Two approaches were taken. First, a completely analytical study was conducted that concluded that it was feasible to use the concepts of networked GMTI radars, precision fire control tracking, and command guidance to effect a 10m targeting error. Second, a detailed simulation was conducted where over a hundred ground vehicles were generated in a simulated armor attack. Terrain databases were used and vehicle-to- vehicle and vehicle-to-terrain movements were faithfully reproduced. Airborne GMTI platforms with GMTI sensors were simulated and GMTI reports (with sensor errors, platform-induced errors, and terrain effects) were produced. These GMTI reports were fed into a laboratory GMTI tracker and track history files were produced. The precision track history files were fed to a high-fidelity weapons simulation and weapons were simulated in a command guidance mode. 11. Error Sources - This figure illustrates the error sources involved in weapon miss distance. The key issue with AMSTE is the box labeled "Prediction Error, Sensor Coordinates"; AMSTE must accurately predict where the target will be when the weapon arrives. 12. Track Prediction - The primary difference in targeting moving surface vehicles from targeting stationary targets is the ability (error source) in predicting where the moving surface vehicle will be when the weapon arrives. This slide illustrates one analysis that shows the importance of track prediction error. This is an analytical result with a hypothetical single platform GMTI sensor. Key issues to note are [1] Predicted weapon miss distance is dominated by track prediction error and [2] weapon miss distance is highly dependent upon revisit rate. 13. Targeting Accuracy - This chart shows the current and future estimate of weapon miss distance using the AMSTE concept. The first column is taken directly from the previous chart with a single platform revisiting the target at about once a minute. The future performance is incorporating several anticipated advances. First, the track prediction error is reduced from 178m to 7m by [1] reducing the revisit rate from 60sec to around 5sec and two incorporating multiple (two) GMTI platforms to reduce sensor error sources. However, once the track prediction error is reduced the other error sources begin to dominate the weapon miss distance. We feel that continued advances in GPS/INS will provide the identified reduction in those contributing errors as shown, resulting in an estimated weapon miss distance of 10m. 14. Study Conclusions - The feasibility study concluded that the AMSTE concept was technically feasible. The precision fire control tracking problem is the critical technical risk; no recorded data exists to support the AMSTE assertion. Further, although technically feasible, AMSTE must be affordable and leverage system level developments ongoing in sensors, communications, BMC2 and weapons. Recommendations from the study were to investigate multiple-platform precision fire control tracking and to assess the military feasibility and cost of real-time AMSTE systems. 15. AMSTE Program -- The AMSTE program is focusing on the problem of affordably engaging surface targets while they are moving. The goal is to be able to leverage and apply existing technology to engage land, water or littoral movers. It is imperative that the correct target is hit and the risk of collateral damage or hitting the wrong vehicle is minimized. AMSTE does not anticipate developing new sensors, weapons, or communications technology to ensure the solution is affordable. Use of existing technology is the goal, with minimal modifications where required. The Air Force, Navy, Marines and Army all have differing missions. AMSTE architecture and technology must be applicable to each of the service as they target destruction of moving vehicles from their particular perspective. 16. Program Structure - The overall AMSTE program is seen as a multi-year, multi-phase program. Phase I, Concept development is currently funded through a recent BAA. The goal of Phase I is to thoroughly investigate Precision Fire Control Tracking and to conduct Weapon System Trade Studies to establish the technical feasibility and plan subsequent experiments. Phase I will identify critical technical issues that will be investigated through real-time fire control experiments in Phase II. These experiments will lead to full-up weapon system experiments in Phase III. 17. Phase I: Approach -- The Weapon System Trade Study will investigate all elements of potential AMSTE system architectures. Sensors, weapons, weapon guidance, communications, radar resource allocation as well targeting issues such as launch acceptability regions should be considered in trades. The task also involves the development of experiments, which will add insight into the system architecture recommended. Multiple contractor awards were granted for the WSTS. Precision Fire Control Tracking consists of bringing new approaches to the continuing development of surface vehicle tracking. The emphasis here is the ability to develop a unified track from multiple platforms with sufficient accuracy to allow a specific target to be hit with a unitary warhead. A key program sub-element will be a multiple platform GMTI data collection. Multiple awards were granted for the PFCT. The Advanced Targeting Technology portion is a little different than the other two. White papers will be welcomed on an ongoing basis, as the program proceeds so there will be a rolling wave of new ideas to be explored. Some of these may be long term and some short term. There are no specific milestones or schedule associated with this task, but some coordinating milestones will evolve as tasks are identified for system incorporation into AMSTE. This is an area where the attendees at DARPA Tech can get involved. White papers are welcome to support AMSTE. 18. Phase I Products - The WSTS effort will develop and evaluate AMSTE architectures that leverage existing and planned technologies to provide affordable engagement. Key issues to be addressed are overall weapon miss distance and system cost. The WSTS contractors will identify critical system components and recommend follow-on experiments. The PFCT effort will develop and evaluate government-owned multi- platform tracking algorithms. Candidate algorithms will be evaluated via government testing facilities. In support of WSTS and PFCT, multiple platform GMTI data will be collected and archived. 19. Summary - The affordable engagement of surface moving vehicles will become increasingly more important as our enemies realize that they must move to survive. The AMSTE program will investigate, develop and analyze technologies to affordably engage surface vehicle.